Ирландский рынок ипотечных бумаг: никаких улучшений на горизонте

,Я внимательно наблюдаю за Ирландией, так как считаю ее первопроходчицей в сложном пути выздоровления от кредитной зависимости. Ирландия была первой страной начавшей программу бюджетной строгости, по большей частью еще в 2009-м. Как говорили несколько недель назад комментаторы на французском BFM-radio, в связи с анонсированием деталей французского плана экономии: "то что принято во Франции - нельзя назвать программой строгости, если сравнивать с Ирландией".
Сегодняшняя депеша от агентства Moody's. Взято с терминала:

DJ PRESS RELEASE: Moody's: Irish Rmbs Performance Deteriorated Further In 
14:20:00 - 15/07/2010

May 2010
      
The following is a press release from Moody's Investors Service:   
Irish Prime RMBS Indices - May 2010   
    
Frankfurt, July 15, 2010 -- Irish RMBS delinquencies have constantly   
increased since the beginning of the recession, and so far do not show   
any signs of abating, according to the latest indices published by   
Moody's Investors Service for the sector. The lengthy repossession   
procedure partly contributes to higher arrears trends. 3.8% of the   
outstanding Irish Prime RMBS portfolios were more than 90 days delinquent   
in March 2010 according to Moody's index. Repossessions among Irish RMBS   
pools remain limited as Irish lenders are encouraged to assist   
cash-strapped borrowers in order to avoid repossession. Furthermore, the   
Code of Conduct on Mortgage Arrears imposes a one-year moratorium on   
legal proceedings. Loans delinquent for more than 360 days, used as a   
proxy for defaults, accounted for 0.9% of the outstanding portfolios in   
March, up from 0.4% a year ago.   
   
The average total redemption rate (TRR) in Irish prime RMBS transactions   
is 5.4%. Reduced payment arrangements agreed with lenders result in   
further decreasing prepayment rates as many borrowers pay only the   
interest portion of their mortgage. Interestingly, due to the high number   
of interest-only payment arrangements made with the borrowers in th   e   
Kildare Securities portfolio, an increasing TRR has been recorded,   
because the interest-only loans had to be repurchased from the portfolio   
according to the transaction documents.   
   
The Irish economy has substantially weakened during the past two years.   
Although the recently published GDP increase of 2.5% q-o-q in Q1 2010   
officially ended the recession, consensus is that sustainable growth will   
not to return until late 2011. Unemployment has risen over the past two   
years from 6.2% to reach currently 13.1%. Irish house prices are more   
than 33.1% below the peak value recorded in late 2006. The house price   
deterioration has reduced the equity cushions available to the borrowers.   
   
Moody's outlook for the Irish RMBS market is negative (see the report   
"EMEA ABS & RMBS: 2009 Review and 2010 Outlook", January 2010).   
   
As of March 2010, 18 Irish prime RMBS transactions with a total pool   
balance of EUR42.0 billion were outstanding. One Irish RMBS transaction   
closed and was rated by Moody's in April. However, it contains more than   
50% non-owner-occupied mortgages, and therefore is not included in the   
index.   
   
Если резюмировать, то: несмотря на беспрецедентные меры по ослаблению долгового давления на ипотечников, количество неплательщиков в сегменте "prime" продолжает увеличиваться без каких-либо признаков улучшения на горизонте.
Тяжел и долог путь к выздоровлению и лежит он через  рецессии (что бы не говорить "депрессию") и дефляцию.